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potential... but...

Wake up
No wind
Blue skies
Go to the beach
Stand there deliberating.
Smallish, mega-dumpy windswell
Surface a relatively smooth veneer.
A few takers scrounging for morsels.
Talked to Lerm about guitar amps and effects pedals.
Once in a while a section would rear-up and beckon.
Definitely surfable.
Probably enjoyable.
Kept rapping with Lerm, "should we go? maybe not? maybe yeah?"
As soon as we'd decide not to surf a scrappy, inviting corner would peel off.
In the end the 8 oclock witching hour approached and we missed the window.
Cheers to those who found waves.

a few musical recommendations:
Shiv Kumar Sharma - Indian Classical musician, plays an instrument called the Santoor. Celestial, dripping, beautiful music. Stony. I first heard Shiv Kumar Sharma while smoking Challace in the Himalaya mountains near a little village called Vashist. This Japanese guy had a small teapee setup way up on a ridge and was serving chai tea. He had this big fire going and was smoking huge hits out of a chillum with some other Indian guys. They said "Bom Shiva" before inhaling and then passed it on. Shiv Kumar Sharma's "elements" were playing in the background as the sun set over 18,000ft peaks on the other side of the valley casting the upper snow fields in orange hues. Magic.

Zakir Hussain - Tabla master. Played in Shakti with John Mclaughlin and more recently in Tabla Beat Science with Bill Laswell and Talvin Singh and others. Zakir's father is one of the mega-masters of Hindustani traditional music. There are legendary tales of Zakir's training as a younster; fasting and meditation, 16 hours a day of practice, memorizing ridiculously long passages of complex rhythms. The guy is no joke with the beats and lives in the Bay Area. Saw him perform at Yoshi's a few years back and was utterly blown away.

Kenny Burrell - Jazz guitar giant. If you like Wes Montgomery or Grant Green you'll dig on Kenny Burrell. He's probably my favorite jazz guitar player. Svelt smoothness. Fresh melodies. Elegant yet brash. Great music for work or snuggling, whatever the case may be.

Doug Martsch - Slide guitar maestro. Nice voice too. Crafts some memorable, haunting sing-along acoustic-style tunes. Like Jack Johnson but much better.

The Mermen - If you haven't checked out these outer-aves-based tweaked/psychadelic/surf-rock legends get on that shit immediately. These guys push boundaries and aren't afraid to get dark and hard. Some of their tracks are a bit repetitive so just jump around until you land on one of the gems.

Don Cherry - 70's jazz mastermind. Improvisational trailblazer. Played a little piccalo trumpet? Gorgeous melodic phrasings. Hyper-trippy, textured strangeness. Get the album "Brown Rice" if you can find it.

Medeski Martin and Wood - Unreal talent. Interesting, groove-centric jazz/funk/rock. Three musicians forged into one. Futuristic, edgy, loose, flowing, heaving beats and movements. Scholarly musical development. Masters of their craft. Not at all afraid to push musical envelopes. Abract and surreal as much as they're tight funky in the pocket. Style!

Buckethead - I've been raving about Buckethead for years. The guy is probably my favorite contemporary guitar slayer. Born in a pen, raised in a coup. Wears a KFC bucket on his head and a Michael Myers mask. He's weird.. But.. fuck.. he brings the mutha-fuckin' ruckus! It's one thing to have all the gnarly metal technique like many of the guitar gods. But Buckethead distinguishes himself from other shred heroes like Satriani, Vai, Yngve, Eric Johnson and the like by actually writing GOOD MUSIC!! All those other jokers write the cheesiest music, imho, but much of Buckethead's orchestrations are catchy and bad-ass. Each of his albums and tracks are pretty unique. I'd recommend Giant Robot or Bermuda Triangle over Colma or Monsters and Robots. You can also catch Buckethead on many of the Praxis albums and also within Claypool's Bucket of Bernie Brains or whatever that band is called. Anyway.. This dude Rocks and has crazy insane legendary chops. A true inspiration.

Brandon Hayden shot

Crazy people

Some dude

Wardo whack

Abubo abrasion


Definitely worth the go out this morning. Surfed solo across from Doc's. Some surprisingly long rides on the inside an occassional head high peak outside. Sectiony but smooth. All in all, good fun. What's with the anchored float that's been there for a couple of weeks?

For the musically ignorant but curious...which albums would you recommend for each of the artists you mentioned above?

Posted by: kdalle at May 11, 2005 10:19 AM

Surfed solo a bit south of kdalle this am. Had fun waves. Von-the waves were about 5 feet, slight offshore, no crowds, blue skies... Go figure. Crazy though, after catching about 5 or 6 waves, 2 peeps paddled out and immediately put a jinx on me. I scrambled for waves for half an hour with no joy. In too far, out too far, too far north, too far south. Arggh. Ran out of time and had to paddle back to the beach. I hate when that happens.

Yeah kdalle, that litle farkin bouy. After a stormy, choppy session a bit north of there bout a month ago, I saw something floating in the water that looked like a person or a dog. I rescued a dog at kelly's a year ago. I paddled back out with noodle arms trying to rescue it! Joke was on me.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 11:00 AM

surfed solo at kdalle's section of the beach, curiously kdalle absent. Definitely worth the go out. In before sunrise, out at 7 AM, work by 8:30...as I was leaving some other peep was just getting started.

Posted by: blakestah at May 11, 2005 11:03 AM

oh sure. rub it in guys. ;) glad u got some. e, we shoulda went out. damn!

Posted by: lerm at May 11, 2005 11:13 AM

I hear ya lerm, we suck!

Posted by: E at May 11, 2005 11:15 AM

Looked doable but only for May this am.

Smooth surface windswell.

Had to drop the girl off at Preschool so no go for me.

That bouy is on a way, way, way long line. I hand over handed it a good 50 yards a couple weeks ago.

About 5 years ago there was a great line-up marker of a bleach bottle anchored just a bit north of the current one. I remember a great session of lefts with Doof and Marlin and a cast of hundreds, aiming for the bleach bottle on the drops.

Went south yesterday for a surf before Jury Duty. Drove through an entire county before paddling out for a little over half hour of surf.
Slim pickings on the bars.

Posted by: friend #1 at May 11, 2005 11:31 AM

I saw someone get a nice wave by Kdale, blue board.

Yesterday United Airlines Bankrupted their pension, and next month retired workers who were getting monthly checks od 1700.00$ will get checks of 800.00$. This is devastating and the first time it has happened which paves the way for other pensions and the state to cut pensions, this is money that workers have paid for. People, act up, don't let this shit happen to you, voice up or be shot down. Fuck those soul less corp bullies.

Teachers across the state will rally today, join them.

Posted by: Mexi at May 11, 2005 11:34 AM

the corporation, part 1:

http://www.eslmusic.com/

the corporation, part 2:

http://www.thecorporation.com

Posted by: paul b at May 11, 2005 11:38 AM

i agree mexi. that is a dangerous precedent. corporations are running amuck. that is just BS. they're going too far, and not enough people are saying booo.

how 'bout haliburton's little $72 million dollar bonus for the excellent job they've done in iraq. correct me if i'm wrong, but weren't they being investigated for mismanaging funds and ripping off tax payer dollars? we're closing schools and halliburton gets a bonus payed by tax payers? WTF?

reading the news makes me so fricking angry!

Posted by: lerm at May 11, 2005 11:57 AM

Posted by: nobody listens to me at May 11, 2005 11:58 AM

hey Mexi, yeah that sucks about their pensions getting capped like that, sure sounds like a scary trend. One question though, what would happen to that pension if United went under for good? I'm not being flippant, but curious. Would the existing pot of cash just be distributed until it ran out and then it is game over? Or does it go away immediately?

Posted by: the janitor at May 11, 2005 11:58 AM

What need have i for that.
What need have i for this.
I am dancing at the feet of my lord.
All is bliss, all is bliss.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 12:13 PM

The United issue sucks..but it's not unprecedented nor the start of a trend (it's a continuation of an ongoing trend). Basically, defined benefit pensions (like United's) seem to be remnants of old-school companies that are now being consistently beaten by newer companies. Those older companies have higher fixed cost structures (like defined benefit pension plans) and can't effectively compete with newer and leaner companies (think United vs. Southwest--Southwest offers 401K plans instead of pensions). As the older companies lose in competition, they are less profitable and less able to pay their high fixed costs...it becomes a downward spiral. I would guess that we'll see more of this and some government bailouts for these systems.

Overall, it sucks for everyone involved, particularly retirees who rely on and need the pensions they were promised. It also sucks for the entire taxpaying population, because we all end up bailing out (to a limited degree) these pensions when the go belly-up.

My takeaway message on this is that I'm more apt to save for retirement through a 401K rather than hope that my employer (or the government through social security) will remain solvent into my golden years. That's of no consolation to United retirees who are getting screwed now though...

Here's an interesting article that I found on the subject.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1004/p02s01-usec.html

Oh yeah...how long is the wind going to stay away?...smooth but junky looking this morning.

Posted by: desk jockey at May 11, 2005 12:17 PM

A word to the wise ya'll. Don't count on benefits for retirement. It's gonna get worse. Invest in govenment bonds (safest) that pay dividends and real estate.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 12:17 PM

Mexi-
Any more info or a URL on tthe teacher's rally that you mentioned?

Posted by: Matt at May 11, 2005 12:18 PM

Folks used to get R.I.C.O. indictments for raiding pension funds - now it's just becoming a way of doing business. Corporate America has been a big "MAFIA" bust-out scam for a while now: Max out the credit, sell off the assets and declare bankruptcy. If Gov. Arnold & Pres. BoyGeorge had it their way State & Federal government would suffer the same fate.
Forget about stocks and bonds - we all better start investing in freeze-dried food and power bars.

Posted by: Jimmie at May 11, 2005 12:23 PM

good call on doug martsch, here's a lil'jam... i love the change at about 1:52

Posted by: bbr at May 11, 2005 12:27 PM

Jimmy, funny how both the progressive left and the reactionary right in our country take their stands based on emotion rather than knowledge and rational analysis. Good luck with the power bars.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 12:27 PM

Let's review:

1. SFUSD Teachers (and all city, state and fed civil service jobs) do not pay into the Social Security system.

2. SFUSD Teachers receive lifetime health benefits after only 5 years of service (10 if recently hired) while most do not pay S.F. property taxes that go towards those benefit.

3. SFUSD Teachers get 16-18 weeks of vacation every year.

4. After only a few years teachers are tenured guaranteeing all these benefits with almost no risk of ever being fired.

5. SFUSD Teachers median salaries ($55K) are well above many professions in the private sector with far fewer benefits.

Good teachers are a great resource but the constant cry that they don't get what they are worth are crocodile tears.

Posted by: Arlene Ackerman at May 11, 2005 12:36 PM

invest in real estate.......that bubble is gonna pop

Well over half of currently written mortgages are interest only - people in it for short-term gain. As the market slows, they will profit take. As the market stops rising, EVERYONE WITH AN INTEREST-ONLY MORTGAGE WILL BAIL AT THE SAME TIME. Its going to be an interesting watch to see how it kicks in when the interest rates get high enough....big snowball effect. Someone with an interest-only mortgage cannot wait for the long-term eventual rise.

Posted by: blakestah at May 11, 2005 12:36 PM

PENSION PLANS = NOT GONNA HELP YOU.

WE'VE ALREADY PEAKED ON OIL SUPPLIES.
THE WORLD = PHUCKED.

HTTP://WWW.DRYDIPSTICK.COM

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

Posted by: judahpeak at May 11, 2005 12:40 PM

has anyone else noticed that the sky is falling?

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 12:51 PM

SURRRFFFF!!

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 12:56 PM

I was reading an interesting artilcle about the RE bubble-pop--several actually. There are areas where prices will decline a little, and some areas alot as the interest rate increase. There are areas that will really suffer. Locations like NYC and SF, San Diego, and a handful of high demand locations will in the longrun prevail. Some areas already experinced a stall. Remember when yuppies were moving into Richmond, CA? Not any more. There are other opportunities outside the US that are still good investments with some risk. Many investors are looking at countries that have recently joined the EU, or are about to join if Putin doesn't overtake them first. Even south of the border loctions are good.

I do think many houses in SF will come onto the market when the variable rate mortgages get back to normal interest in the 8%+ range. If, and it's a big if, rates rise to the double digits like they did in the early eighties, prices will drop significantly, as they did in SF during that time period.

Folks on the income/expense margin won't be able to handle the monthly increases. But in the longrun, SF prices will remain stable and increase. We are advised by the "experts" to consider investments as long term events. Another factoid, roughly 90% of day traders lose money--in the longrun.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 01:05 PM

A good surfboard, a good wetsuit, a good guitar and a family are some of the best investments I ever made.

As for housing (and other stuff) I'll quote Paul Kantner "San Francisco is 49 square miles surrounded by reality."

Posted by: kdalle at May 11, 2005 01:17 PM

SF housing costs have more than doubled since 1997.

Consumer Price Index rose 20% in the same time span.

Average wages rose about 20% in the same time span.

25-35% of all new housing mortgages in the last five years have not been for primary residences.

50-60% of all new housing mortgages have been interest only.

At the CPI inflation rate, a house worth $300,000 in 1997 is today worth $360,000. However, it would sell today for $650,000 or more.

The other, most salient point, is affordability. A decent 3 BR starter single family home in the outer sunset is about $750,000, and to afford that as a first house you would need an annual income of about $200,000. There just are not very many people making that much money. roughly 6% of the households in SF could afford a new basic single family home in the outer sunset.

So it should be clear that it is not working residents buying their home for the next few decades driving the market. It is driven by speculation. People buy because they think it is going to go up, not because they are settling down in SF. They want to take a profit, which is not something relevant to most home owners (profit taking as a home owner requires moving to a lower priced market). This is evidenced by their buying second houses and financing them with 5-7 year interest only loans.

Posted by: blakestah at May 11, 2005 01:26 PM

Happy teacher day to you to Arlene, and the prison gaurd union is much stronger than the teachers union, where are the priorities?

Rally info:

May 5, 2005
 
BURLINGAME – In cities across the state, thousands of California Teachers Association members are taking part in scores of events on May 11 to celebrate teaching and to protest the governor's broken promises on education as part of California's 23rd annual "Day of the Teacher" celebration.
 
Here is a sampling of May 11 events organized by teachers around the state:
 
30-mile El Camino Picket: Hundreds of teachers picketing the governor's education policies will be out on various corners after school along a 30-mile stretch of El Camino Real, starting in South San Francisco and ending in Palo Alto. Media can find teachers at intersections including El Camino and Westborough Boulevard (in South San Francisco), Millbrae Avenue (Burlingame), Hillsdale Boulevard (San Mateo), James Avenue (Redwood City). Call Dale Martin: 650-552-5491.
 
Santa Clara County: Teachers from two dozen Silicon Valley districts in the county are picketing before school on campuses, and doing 4 p.m. picketing against governor at five shopping malls: Valley Fair, Oakridge, Westgate, Great Mall, Stanford mall. Call Mike Myslinski: 408-921-5769.
 
San Francisco: United Educators of San Francisco members are picketing from 4:30-5:30 p.m. at corner of Van Ness Avenue and McAllister Street to educate the public about their contract fight and the governor's attacks. Contact UESF President Dennis Kelly: 415-956-8373.
 
Santa Rosa: CTA Vice President David A. Sanchez will speak against governor's agenda on education funding and Proposition 98 attacks at a large protest rally, 3:30-5 p.m., at Santa Rosa Courthouse Square. Other speakers include CTA Board member Larry Allen, local teacher leaders and Sonoma County Schools Superintendent Carl Wong. Teacher picnic follows, 5-7 p.m., Julliard Park. Contact Helen O'Donnell: 707-544-1075.
 
Monterey: Local education coalition teachers, parents, school board members will be attending 4-5:30 p.m. community rally for public school funding at Window on the Bay Park, across from Lake El Estero. Contact Jim Gutman: 831-783-3200.

Salinas:  "Save Our Schools" rally at Central Park, corner of Central and Homestead, across from Hartnell College, at 3:45 p.m. Teachers, parents, administrators to speak. Contact Susan Midori Jones: 831-783-3200.
 
Fremont: To let the governor know teachers are united and won't back down, educators from Fremont, Newark and Union City will create a human "Chain for Education" along Mowry Avenue in Fremont, from Cherry to Blacow. Event is 3:45-5 p.m. Contact Marta Dragos: 510-791-8366.
 
Lancaster: On May 13,  "Run on Runner Rally." Teachers from 14 school districts in Antelope Valley will rally at 4 p.m. at the local CTA office, 1027 W. Lancaster Blvd. in Los Angeles County. They will march to nearby office of Senator George Runner. Speakers will include teachers, superintendents and school board members. Contact Paul Scott or David Aponik: 661-948-6035.
 
Paramount: A May 11 Day of the Teacher Fiesta and rally from 3:30-6 p.m.at Progress Park in Paramount, Los Angeles County. Call Robin DeVitt: 562-924-9311.
 
Fresno: Hundreds of teachers will attend a reception hosted by Fresno Teachers Association from 4-6 p.m. at Masonic Lodge on 3444 East Shields Ave., and then converge on a political fund-raiser by the governor at 6435 North Van Ness Blvd., Fresno. Contact Gary Alford: 559-224-8430.
 
Bakersfield: Kern County Education Coalition celebration of teachers and rally against governor's agenda, 4-7 p.m., Yokuts Park off Truxtun Avenue, Bakersfield. Contact Bakersfield Elementary Teachers Association President Carol Reichert: 661-327-4567.
 
Yuba City: CTA President Barbara E. Kerr will be attending a 5:30 p.m. awards dinner honoring teachers in the CTA Feather River Service Center Council at The Refuge restaurant, 1501 Buttehouse. Call Mike Myslinski: 650-552-5324.
 
Sacramento: A 4-6:30 p.m. event with parents, local school superintendents, jazz music and refreshments celebrating local educators – including announcement of local teachers of the year – will be held on the west steps of the State Capitol. Teachers hosting the event are from the Elk Grove Education Association, Sacramento City Teachers Association and San Juan Teachers Association. Contact San Juan President Nancy Waltz: 916-487-7582.
 
Davis: 3:30-5 p.m. Teachers picketing along Covell Boulevard and other streets to support public education. Contact Davis Teachers Association President-elect Phyllis York: 916-723-2822.
 
Ukiah: 4:30 p.m. coalition rally for education at courthouse. Contact Sherry Sandoval, co-president of Ukiah Teachers Association: 707-463-5236, ext. 126.
 
Palm Springs: Teachers will wear red "Save Proposition 98" T-shirts and do picketing before and after school hours at intersections near school campuses. Contact Allen Tarzwell: 760-333-3899.
 
Riverside County:  Moreno Valley Education Association members will be handing out "Why Are Teachers Angry?" flyers to parents before and after school, wearing "Students: Our Special Interest" buttons. Contact Ann Adler: 951-485-0545.
 
San Diego: San Diego Unified teachers will be honored at a 4-7 p.m. reception hosted by the San Diego Education Association at the Hilton By The Bay Hotel. Teachers will be signing a large banner they are taking to a huge May 25 rally against the governor in Los Angeles. Contact SDEA President Terry Pesta: 619-283-4411.
 

Posted by: Mexi at May 11, 2005 01:30 PM

surfed solo north of Dennis, north of kdalle, possibly but not guarranteed kdalle's usual section of beach, which wasn't kdalle's but blakestah's, since blakestah was north of kdalle. Flashback to grade school word problems.

If I had more experience it could have been fun w/some small but steep drops, as it was, the dumpy conditions provided one of the better Kaiser Glory wipeouts in memory. Actually thought of Bruce's wipeout page on the way down. Cut my losses after a short doofy session, no bruises :)

Posted by: s.s. sharkbait at May 11, 2005 01:31 PM

Strong points Blakestah. And I agree. I could go just about anyplace else in the US and buy a decent home. Not here. Not to get stuck in SF, real estate is still a good long-term investment. There are many options.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 01:39 PM

blakestah, there are other factors...but are they surf related?

Much of the housing stock in SF is sold to people trading up as they are the only ones that can afford these prices. They often come in with a large chunk of equity from a previous property. Also, a good portion of the single family homes are being bought with Asian money. A weak dollar means relatively cheap purchase even at these prices. They know it's a good investment expecially when the dollar becomes strong again. The speculation is largely going on in the hinterlands - Las Vegas, Colorado, etc. Locally most first time buyers are going to the 'burbs or condos. Those are approaching unaffordability for first timers. When regional equlibrium is acheived and interest rates increase, prices will flatten.

Can we please have some clean surf tomorrow?

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 01:40 PM

That was me. How many time has my name been mentioned today? Cut it out!

Posted by: kdalle at May 11, 2005 01:42 PM

There are some of us trying to do both Blakestah.

Faced with what then seemed to be out of control market, my wife and I bought a fixer in the sunset in 2000. First time home, that we will live in for at least 10 years.

With the inflation of House prices, and the bubble, I take solace in the fact that if there is a bust, SF will recover fastest. As it is, we have ten fold increase in our initial investment (equity = 10Xdownpayment).

Everyone that has moved into my street in the last 5 years (three instances) have been families.

I think that next store, the guy bought it and rented it out for a year or so, then refinanced in order to use the equity to remodel the downstairs so that he could move in with his whole family (three gen, about 8 people).

So he was doing both the profit taking and the family home buying.

Posted by: friend #1 at May 11, 2005 01:43 PM

Kdalle - your name has appeared 9 times so far, including your signature. Kdalle - 10 times...

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 01:48 PM

If music is dying, musicians are killing it. Composers are the ones decomposing it. We are as responsible as anyone--although we'd love not to admit it. We lash out at "The Industry", blaming things like corporate structure for our shitty music--but we are the ones making it. We open the box they've given us and jump in, wrap ourselves up, and even lick the stamp. Why? Insecurity--the need for acceptance--maybe even money. We're not thinking about our music, just how it looks. One would rather have the warm tongue of a critic licking his asshole than the tongue of his spouse. It gives him a sense of validity and power. He seems to defy gravity. Maybe it is because he doesn't know what the hell else to do. He sees it coming--but freezes with panic like a deer in the headlights. Don't laugh--I've done it and you probably have too. And it has undoubtedly effected out music. (But have we learned anything form it?) We know that we are mostly a lot of slobbering babies who need constant stroking. We realize also in the moral order of society, we occupy positions similar to the thief, pimp, or peeping tom. We know that even if one has the pride of a bull, it is hard enough just to remain focused in this world. It gives us milliona upon millions of images--distractions--all saying the same thing at the same time: DO NOT THINK. If your fantasy and desire give you migraines, how easy it is to forget them when there is so much to look at. Our creations die quickly when abandoned like this. Do we realize that we are eating our young? It seems the passion that moves us is accompanied by an incredible urge to squash it. It is as quick as a fucking reflex--a conditioned response. It it a sexual problem? A puritanical one? The most intense and convincing music achieves a sexual level of expression, but what we normally feel is frigidity and limpness. It is just too easy for an artist to 'socialize' his desires when life tells him cardboard is OK. You should be ashamed of yourself! What is your fucking problem? If you don't come out, sooner or later you will die in there. Use chunks of yourself. Bodily fluids. Look left and right. Sift through others' belongings. Borrow. Steal. And try to achieve some sort of pleasure while doing it. This excitement should increase and intensify when you visualize it being shared by a number of people. Think about it. If it comes from inside you, it is automatically valid--it just may or may not be good. Because if it is not communicating in some way, its pleasure is as short-lived as a quick fuck in the back room. It doesn't mean shit. The labor of many composers is to construct elaborate walls of sound--but we often forget to leave a window or door to crawl out of. ow can we survive in these clever little rooms? We must eat our creation or we will starve. At this point, we have heard what we wanted to hear--our ears have shut down. We've resigned as slaves to our own gluttony. But if we have boarded up our learning environment, our only way out is to teach what we know. Will they listen? Why should they? Because they need you as much as you need them. You can save them from being swallowed up by the world--they can save you from being swallowed up by the world. Young and old players should be seeking each other out and using each other. They should develope a healthy exchange of smut--and learn to wear each other's masks. In this kind of environment, incredible things can happen. Music can emerge that is athletic and personal. Music that is riddled with contradictions--impossibilities. And that is the shit that can defy gravity.

Posted by: Mike Patton at May 11, 2005 01:49 PM

When the most passionate posts on SF surf blogs are about SF real estate, time to sell. If you don't own, don't buy now unless you can afford a fixed rate mortgage and to hold for 10+ years. God I sick of how often this conversation takes place these days.

Posted by: SELL at May 11, 2005 01:52 PM

it's called "How many Chinese families can you pack into each house in the Sunset/Parkside/Richmond?"

Man, I wish that the City would come through and start taking charge of some of these units with 4-5 families living in them. These are the people driving up the housing costs for us here in the City.


Posted by: Mao at May 11, 2005 02:11 PM

racist

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 02:12 PM

Pave over every front and back yard.
More concrete!
Grass is evil!!!
Fill your garage with walls and rooms!
Throw your cigarettes out in the street!
Wash your car every day!
More People!!!!
Need More People!!!!!

Posted by: Zao Noodle Bar at May 11, 2005 02:13 PM

I named a race, that makes me a racist I guess?

you must either not live here, or you are a "Denialist"

Posted by: Mao at May 11, 2005 02:15 PM

mao asks: "How many Chinese families can you pack into each house in the Sunset/Parkside/Richmond?"

ahhh, errr, ummmm, I duuno Mao. How many CAN you pack into each house?

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 02:15 PM

I say when the bubble burts, all us surfers buy up a block in the outer sunset, take down the backyard fences so we have a park, and call it "Surftopia" where boards and wetsuits are shared equally. We will live by one simple motto: four legs good, two legs bad. It's stupid not to do. Who's with me?

Posted by: Andrew on 57th at May 11, 2005 02:16 PM

A few of us surfed solo this am. That's all I care about.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 02:17 PM

Certainly not into sharing any pee stained wetsuits.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 02:18 PM

Andrew, I think that's a novel idea. I'm in.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 02:19 PM

Blakestah is right. There is a housing bubble. Housing price raises can't exceed average income raises for any significant period of time.

Housing bubbles happen. Housing in tokyo still hasn't recovered from its early 90's peak. Tokyo is still desirable, just as san francisco will always be desirable. That doesn't doesn't mean house prices won't go down.

On the other hand, I was stupid for not buying a house earlier. I thought the housing bubble would peak in 1999.

Posted by: joe O at May 11, 2005 02:20 PM

Hey andrew, I see blakestah and I aren't the only ones with an appreciation for subtle ironies and sarcasms. nice one.

Posted by: Eric at May 11, 2005 02:24 PM

In surftopia, of course, some surfers will be more equal than others.

Posted by: Eric at May 11, 2005 02:25 PM

blakestah - i think your numbers are a little off. a 750K house with a 6% 30 yr fixed is is about $5000/month with no down - or 60K per year. at 200K/yr you can afford 45% of that per year (with no other debt) - or 90K, so you could get a $1.1M house on 200K a year. of course, you have to stretch it for a few years.

i only say this cause I just bought a 700K house with much less than 200K per year. and i have an interest only option for 10 years, but you bet i'll be paying as much as i can (at or above 30 year fixed)

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 02:30 PM

and i feel that sense of doom now that i bought at the ulitmate peak...

i waited since 95 for the whole housing bubble to burst - only to become the last one suckered.

oh and don;t buy a house anyways - i haven't surfed in over 6 weeks since i've been renovating crap.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 02:35 PM

Shut up about real estate its the most tired discussion ever. Kaiser, a little help? How are things over on the wicked weasel swimsuit co. web site these days?

Posted by: fuck at May 11, 2005 02:35 PM

4LOS is patiently waiting for all the debt-addled yuppies to enjoy massive foreclosure and default on debt. 4LOS predicts heavy foreclosures as soon as mid-2006.

4LOS never spends more than he earns. Most Amerikans do not seem to understand the wonderful pleasure of this simple guidance.

-4Love Of Surfing

PS: Music is what you make it. ZAKIR HUSSEIN (seen him 3X) is a super-master and wonderful human being. He no longer sees the world the way you and I do. As a percussionist for almost 30 years, I follow the path. No biters, always come original. Don't gavitate to fads, eliminate any illusions or delusions. Then music flow.

Posted by: 4LOS at May 11, 2005 02:44 PM

I got in the housing market in 2000, I just upgraded but I'm prepared to stick it out for 10 years.

The housing bubble cycle is way way over due, market history shows that it has been a 7 year up cycle followed by a 3 year down, We currently been on a 9 year crazy up. It has got to go down, but I've been saying that for a few years.

Posted by: Mexi at May 11, 2005 02:47 PM

I'll shut up now... SURF

Posted by: Mexi at May 11, 2005 02:57 PM

yeah, strange that you mentioned doug martsch.
i just started listening to built to spill alot again, used to listen to them in college. and i have been trying to find someone else who likes them to go to the slims show with me in july and all of my friends have been like, "huh? who? is that a damn in poland."

Posted by: steamwand at May 11, 2005 02:59 PM

dam

Posted by: steamwand at May 11, 2005 03:00 PM

this one time, i went surfing, and as the new crescent moon started to set, and twilight fell upon the land, and the sea turned dark and mysterious and full of secrets, i caught a wave. i could not see as the wall of water peaked under my chest and i dropped over the edge into the darkness, but i could feel. and the water pushed me forward and my board flowed onward in the night, and a section threw out in front of me and now a lip was peeling back towards me so i balanced myself on my board and crouched at the bottom and then went up and i hit that lip that i could not really see and together we fell back to the earth and sea where i lay down on my stomach and she pushed me to shore, and said i would always be welcome back for more. for you see, she was my mother, and my body contains her inside of me.

Posted by: i like surfing not real estate at May 11, 2005 03:07 PM

my 3 cents:

1) Even during the depression, SF property value held or increased.

2) With the value of the dollar declining, Europeans are able to invest in SF much easier (1.29 Euro to 1 dollar). Also, the Asian imigrants are no longer the poorest of the poor, hoping to live the American dream, most are now very wealthy in thier own country and have extra income to easily buy property here in the bay area (where they feel more at home than in the rest of the US). If this continues, SF housing prices should continue to increase.

Posted by: traut at May 11, 2005 03:12 PM

Arlene,
Let's review the review:

"1. SFUSD Teachers (and all city, state and fed civil service jobs) do not pay into the Social Security system."

Oh really. I can't speak for city and state workers, but I'm fed and I pay Social Security. The old Civil Service Retirement System, which did not pay into Social Security, was replaced more than 20 years ago. But so what? If you don't pay into Social Security, you don't get Social Security benefits.

"2. SFUSD Teachers receive lifetime health benefits after only 5 years of service (10 if recently hired) while most do not pay S.F. property taxes that go towards those benefit."

At least they won't be a drain on the MediCal/MediCare system. And of course most don't pay S.F. property tax, with a median salary of $55K (item 5) just what kind of a house in S.F. can one get? For those teachers that are living in S.F., it's mainly their landlords that are paying the property tax. And where did they get the money? And besides, who says you have to pay the tax that pays for your own benefit?

"3. SFUSD Teachers get 16-18 weeks of vacation every year."

But they can't afford go on a vacation. One of the teachers at my daughter's school mentioned how ironic it was to have a ski week vacation, when the teachers can't afford to go ski. I wonder how many need to teach summer school and/or get other jobs to make ends meet.

"4. After only a few years teachers are tenured guaranteeing all these benefits with almost no risk of ever being fired."

A few years? OK, whatever.

"5. SFUSD Teachers median salaries ($55K) are well above many professions in the private sector with far fewer benefits."

Well above what professions? Does this seem like a lot of money to you? Do you live in the Bay Area?

"Good teachers are a great resource but the constant cry that they don't get what they are worth are crocodile tears."

Well, one thing worse in my book is the constant cry that teachers are overpaid.

It's like anything else, you get what you pay for. People complain about low test scores (as if that's a reliable measure of the quality of the teachers in the first place) but honestly how hard is it to attract good teachers to the Bay Area when they can find jobs in places that are actually affordable? If you want good teachers in SF, you have to pay them what it takes to live here.

Mexi, I'll be out there with you at 4:30.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 03:14 PM

hey e, i'm probably missing something, but are those pictures of "some dude" you?

Posted by: Hoseph at May 11, 2005 03:15 PM

why would anybody by bonds when the rates are so low? isn't a bonds value inversely related to interest rates, thus buying a bond now at near historical lows in the rates that should inevitabily go up seems like a mistake? now, if you had a bunch of early 80s bonds....

Posted by: inquisitive at May 11, 2005 03:16 PM

Yo All, speaking of United I flew TED (united's little brother or something) last week to Mexico and brought 2 boards. No hassle, no charge, just smiles. I asked around and they don't charge for surfboards. Cheap flights to Mexico to.

Posted by: Angus at May 11, 2005 03:22 PM

*Jimmy, funny how both the progressive left and the reactionary right in our country take their stands based on emotion rather than knowledge and rational analysis. Good luck with the power bars.
Posted by at May 11, 2005 12:27 PM*

I hope everyone realizes that when I suggested freeze-dried food and power bars as prime investments I had my tongue-firmly-in-cheek - it was a JOKE, man! I am NOT a survivalist - actually I'm an optimist. I believe that things usually have a way of turning out o.k. It's just that I started paying attention to retirement relatively late in life - so now I can't really afford to back off on my more risky investment vehicles just yet. At the same time, I'm getting too old to feel entirely comfortable with some of them - especially considering current economic realities. Put all that together with where Bush would like to take Social Security and where MediCare already IS ... I'm nervous. The lesson is: you are never too young to look forward to your retirement. None of us can work forever. But if you start putting some money away NOW WHILE YOU ARE YOUNG, you'll be able to let your money earn for you. There is nothing in the world like the power of compound interest.

All this talk about money and real estate is depressing - AND I CAN"T EVEN SURF AFTER WORK, I GOTTA GO TO SCHOOL! CHRIST I'm such a LOSER! Sob / Snivel ... O.K. I'm done for now.

Posted by: Jimmie at May 11, 2005 03:25 PM

There are many bonds (ETF's that we can easily buy and sell like stocks) that fluctuate very little with interest rate changes. In particular, funds that are not leveraged, meaning the fund did not borrow money via preferred shares or other forms of borrowing to make investments, do not vary much with interest rates. Leverage is very expensive when the rates go up. The main thing is to collect dividends on safe funds. Safe is relative. Again, look at the long run payback. Not short term.

Discalimer: I'm not a finacial advisor but I saw an actor play one on TV once.

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 03:25 PM

Time for a Gerry break:

Posted by: 3to5setsof7 at May 11, 2005 03:29 PM

steamwand - built to spill at slim's....very good info. i know the last time they came through here the shows were sold out. i'll be there this time!

Posted by: rza at May 11, 2005 03:31 PM

Jimmie - just a shout out to you for that MXR Distortion+ pedal!! i'm still loving that thing almost every day. I recently went with Kdalle's suggestion and got a 1spot 9volt plug-thingy so it doesn't need batteries anymore. (Kdalle, i also picked up a 1-spot 5-->1 daisy chain so all my pedals can be plugged in with one 1-spot. It's pretty sick) That pedal is dreamy man. A guy at Rocker guitars went kinda crazy when i told him what pedal i was using. He told me to, "Hang on to that thing, those are like gold!"

farking psyched!

Can't wait to jam after work.

any jammers out there hit me up if you'd like to rock-out! I'm part of a pretty nifty studio over in Oakland where we can play really loud.

back to reality discussion. I think i'll be renting for life!! can't even afford high-speed interweb yet. Y'all are a wealthy bunch!

hoseph - yup.

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 03:32 PM

god what a lame thread today...except the photos , the thought of surftopia (reminds me of people's park...wish we had the balls to take a portion of the beach and just squat...well I guess I've been there/done that)and the support of the teachers. Sucks that they already make peanuts and have to scrap for basic employment benefits but now this....bizzarro world indeed

Posted by: PEZ at May 11, 2005 03:34 PM

Mr Bungle, Tomahawk- Mit Gas- very fine albums.
I am a huge fan of Patton-his music is pure pissed energy.

Does he surf though? And what is his take on the real estate market???

Posted by: flap at May 11, 2005 03:44 PM

e - Yeah, an old guitar teacher of mine told me that pedal was primo. I'm glad to hear you were able to figure a way to power it without batteries - that is MAJOR! I've got some other floor toys gathering dust in one of my drawers. I'll check 'em out and give you an email on the particulars.

Posted by: Jimmie at May 11, 2005 03:46 PM

Patton does not surf. He is, however, very keen on the real estate tip.

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 03:55 PM

just a little bugger like this would be nice right now

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 03:58 PM

bagel painting

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 04:00 PM

e-good on you for the equipment. My I'd love to jam electric on a weekend. Got to play Dad during the weeknights. RSVP some time if there is room for a crusty old fart in the studio.

kdalle @ sbcglobal.net

Posted by: kdalle at May 11, 2005 04:00 PM

That little bugger is Matt Collins!!! That fuck!!!!

Matt-

Hope you get well soon. Your not missin much!!!

Posted by: pez at May 11, 2005 04:06 PM

The Onion Party - Friday, May 13
craigslist and INFORUM Welcome America's Finest News Source to San Francisco!

WHAT: The world's most popular news satire publication is coming to the streets of San Francisco. craigslist and INFORUM invite you to celebrate in style at 12 Galaxies with bands, beer and The Onion writers (who apparently also DJ)! More than 4 million readers visit The Onion online for genius headlines like, "Supreme Court Rules Supreme Court Rules" and "Drugs Win Drug War." Get your much-needed weekly dose on street corners beginning May 12.

* 10:45 - 11:30pm: Dead Hensons
* 11:30 - 12:30am: Special Guest ONION DJs
* 12:30 - 2:00am: DJ Jester the Filipino Fist
* 2:00 - 6:00am: Staring Contest between Onion writers and craigslist staff

WHO: The Onion writers & management
WHEN: 10 p.m. Doors Open
WHERE: 12 Galaxies, 2565 Mission Street, San Francisco
HOW: Free event - No tickets or reservations necessary!

Posted by: steve-o at May 11, 2005 04:06 PM

i'm maxing my 401k now that i've finally paid off all of my debts, but i often think about how old i will have to be to even touch that money. what if i only live until i'm 60? wouldn't that money be better spent when i'm young and able to surf?

i'm also saving a little in an ing account. 3% interest, no minimums, no hidden fees. this sounds like a commercial. it's a pretty good deal. if anybody wants a $25 dollar bonus to start an account, send me your e-mail. wildstar2199 at hotmail.com.

now back to surf. afterwork session? too windy? looks pretty windy downtown.

Posted by: lerm at May 11, 2005 04:15 PM

e - nugs like that were available this morning.

I think key factors in my take on the bubble are fraction with interest only loans, and fraction buying not as a primary residence. The real estate market is driven by speculation.

With respect to the amount it would take to buy a $750k house, I based it on having two kids (thus buying a three bedroom). It kinda crimps the affordability factor to live in the financially-least-kid-friendly place in the whole country.

My guess is the main factors in the market are interest rate, strength of the dollar, and strength of the stock market. If the market goes up and interest rates keep going up and the dollar rebounds, POP! And if the market starts to slip, you are going to see 1 in 5 homeowners grab their socks and run out of the market - those with interest only loans. There has never been a housing bubble before with interest only loans.

Real estate is a mediocre long-term investment. If you look at long-term trends (say, 30-40 years) and compare it to other ways to use your money, you will see this. Plus, unless you leave your market the equity in your primary residence is not really usable.

------------------------------

Keep an eye on winds for surf. If they blow 340 deg at the buoy overnight, it'll be clean in the morning north of Daly City.

Posted by: blakestah at May 11, 2005 04:16 PM

Kdalle - that might be siick! Maybe this weekend. I have practice tonight and i'll email you tomorrow about the weekend schedule.

right on Jimmie!

pez - i meant that the wave was a "lil bugger." That photo is from the niceness archives, taken by Ana Paula. Very cool that you know the styler.

We need a Tom Indo recap!!!

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 04:17 PM

blakestah, how come 340 wind will have that effect?

Posted by: bird at May 11, 2005 04:23 PM

ooooo. nevermind. not even close.

Posted by: lerm at May 11, 2005 04:24 PM

lerm and other surf vid fans.. I just realized that the music on Queen of the Stone Age's self-titled album is in a bunch of surf vids. Volcom and Pomer vids especially.

rock.

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 04:27 PM

bay area real estate: Screw it, I'll never afford it so I just rent a little 1 bdrm apartment, spend my cubicle cash on travel and hobbies! So many people are slaves to a morgage and house repairs etc. too. But in the long run probably a good investment and worth the headache. At least the cheaper areas of the city.

Andrew and anyone else who might be interested:

OK Yesterday I had my kitesurfing lesson at Coyote Point with Jeff Kafka (pacifica local, big wave charger, pro kiter) in some rippin winds. Pretty fun to finally get out there on a board and be a newbie all over again. The bay is a trippy place, lived here all my life and had never really been out in the Bay, props to all you SF sailors out there.

First of all- Get a lesson if your interested, those kites are crazy, ass- kicking powerful. (Actually fly a trainer kite for a couple months first)

Coyote Point- Was convienent for me- Some kinda sketchy hazards: Powerlines and some weird posts sticking up out of the water. There are some other places in the E. Bay and Delta which are more mellow.

But Jeff teaches from a waverunner which is key! I don't really know how someone would do it otherwise. That way you can go out the the water in between the CP harbor and 3rd avenue.

All in all a fun experience and a must if you want to try it out. I would recommend Jeff to anyone on this board. Here is his link.

www.windoverwaterkiteboarding.com

Posted by: artifact at May 11, 2005 04:36 PM

if you like QOTSA and Kyuss you should check out brant bjork and the boys... fucking awesome stoner/desert rock. they play the parkside a lot.

Posted by: bbr at May 11, 2005 04:40 PM

never heard of Kyuss before.. Listening to them as we speak on Rhapsody.. I like!

Posted by: bbr at May 11, 2005 04:52 PM

shit.. that last one was me, addressed to bbr.

Posted by: e at May 11, 2005 04:52 PM

Blakestah, macro analysis doesn't always work so well for Real Estate, since each local market has it's own quirks, bubbles etc. A broad sweep like "real estate is a mediocre long term investment" ignores this fact.

Also, sure you could do better investing your down payment and the differenc between rent and what a mortgage would cost somewhere else. But what exactly is your return on renting? For that reason I don't think you can view a residence you inhabit in the same manner that you would other investments. BTW I'm not in real estate.

Posted by: the janitor at May 11, 2005 05:13 PM

Econ 101 - Supply Side
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. To control inflation, you need to control the money supply.

Annual consumption is a function of people's expected lifetime earnings – not just their income at the current time.
----------------------------------------
The 49 Sq miles of San Francisco Real Estate is dictated by Supply (limited) and Demand (variable but constant). The market will most likely soften in a worst case scenario.

Posted by: M. Friedman, Chicago Boys Club at May 11, 2005 05:56 PM

Don't make the mistake that real estate is limited your residence. There's land, apartments, and commercial real estate too. People continue to get wealthy with investment properties.

As for the bond market - well I'm not an investment expert but I work for a financial company that specializes in the bond market (ETF's). Trust me. There is money to be made. Prices don't go down, they just "fluctuate" ;)

Posted by: Dennis at May 11, 2005 05:59 PM

kyuss is cool but the lyrics are pretty cheesy. fu manchu is pretty awesome live too, but again way corny lyrics.

Posted by: bbr at May 11, 2005 05:59 PM

e, did you see that last show of Queens of the Stone Age at the Fillmore?
Epic show! I was in the balcony to the left of the stage.

My ears hurt for 2 days...

Posted by: flap at May 11, 2005 06:58 PM

Dennis....you piqued my curiosity...where do you work? I think I may have worked there too...a while back.

email me @ jdznorcal@comcast.net if you don't want to post the co. or not at all if you like...I just want to satisfy my curiosity....

BTW...I like real estate...it's tangible and it keeps you dry when it rains...

Posted by: jdz at May 11, 2005 07:37 PM

I leave you guys alone for one day and this is what happens.....

Fuck the housing market, I got outbid by $170,000 3 weeks ago. That shit ain't funny. Someone took a lump of birdshit to the head on that one. Not me.

The pressure on the market has less to do with interest rates and more to do with people going in with 100% financing. Supply/Demand dictates bay area stability and rise. Worst case, down 10%. Best case, up 25-30%. Likely case, up 5-8% annual over the next 5-7 years, including a POP!

Now, who asked for some skin.....

Posted by: Kaiser at May 11, 2005 08:10 PM

Tom,

Check this: http://dir.travelzoo.com/Air.asp?intCategory=10&id=189417

Posted by: Kaiser at May 11, 2005 08:12 PM

e, when you post those waves, such as Mr. Brandon Haydens picture. I feel happy in pants. Is this normal or should I seek professional help?

Posted by: Brian at May 11, 2005 09:09 PM

Brian you rule!

Posted by: at May 11, 2005 10:01 PM

haha, and im shreddin blues on my guitar at 8:21, NOT going to school

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